The High Stakes of Marijuana Reform in Midterm Elections

The midterm elections are just around the corner, and marijuana reform has emerged as a contentious issue on both sides of the aisle. As the country teeters between vilification and acceptance of cannabis, it’s time to examine the politics behind this trend.

Since 1996, 40 states and the District of Columbia have legalized either medical or recreational adult-use marijuana. However, despite growing public support – with 64% of U.S. adults thinking marijuana should be legal, according to a November Gallup poll – cannabis remains a federally illegal Schedule I drug as defined by the 1970 Controlled Substances Act.

In December last year, President Trump initiated rescheduling efforts that have sent shockwaves through the industry and beyond. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s order to reschedule state-licensed medical marijuana to Schedule III has eased research restraints and federal tax burdens on companies operating in the $30-billion legal cannabis industry. However, this move is widely seen as a tactical effort by Trump to boost Republican voters who support loosening drug restrictions.

Some argue that Trump’s switch is an attempt to curry favor with voters who back cannabis reform, particularly given his administration’s recent order to fast-track approval of psychedelic drugs and his slumping approval rating. However, the Gallup data suggests public support has declined from 70% in 2023, a trend that can be interpreted as politically motivated.

Support for legalization among Republicans has fallen 13 points over the past year, to 40% from 53%, despite Trump’s warming relationship with the industry. Meanwhile, Democrats (85%) and independents (66%) have maintained their support. This discrepancy raises questions about whether politicians are truly listening to the people or simply trying to capitalize on a trend.

The rescheduling efforts may provide some relief to cannabis businesses, but it’s essential to understand what this means in practice. Matthew Merlander, president of Sun Theory, notes that the removal of 280E tax relief would make the industry more profitable. However, not everyone is convinced that this is a good thing. Kevin Sabet, CEO of Smart Approaches to Marijuana, believes that cannabis reform will be a low-priority issue come November.

“The politicians who thought they were going to score cheap votes by supporting marijuana reform are in for a rude awakening,” Sabet said. “It’s traditionally let down the politicians who thought they could ride this trend.”

As we head into the midterm elections, it’s clear that marijuana reform is no longer just an issue for enthusiasts or activists. It’s become a hot-button topic on both sides of the aisle, with politicians scrambling to keep up with shifting public opinion. The question now is: will this momentum translate into real change, or will it fizzle out like so many previous attempts at reform?

The industry itself seems divided on what this means for their businesses. Kim Rivers, CEO of Trulieve, one of the largest U.S. cannabis companies, has donated $750,000 to Trump’s inauguration and lobbied the administration for federal and state reforms. However, not everyone shares her optimism.

Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) wrote in August 2025 that reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug would be “a self-own for the Republican Party in 2026.” His words are a stark reminder that, despite growing public support, cannabis reform remains a contentious issue.

As we wait with bated breath for the outcome of the midterm elections, one thing is certain: the future of cannabis in America hangs precariously in the balance. The stakes are high: will we see significant change in marijuana policy, or will this momentum fizzle out?