A Fragile Detente: Can Xi’s Vision for Stability Survive the China-US Rivalry?

Analysts on both sides of the Pacific hailed President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump’s summit as a breakthrough in Sino-American relations. However, beneath the warm words and symbolism lies a fundamental challenge: reconciling the competing interests and ambitions of two great powers locked in a struggle for dominance.

Chinese analysts like Zhao Minghao, deputy director of Fudan University’s Centre for American Studies, are cautiously optimistic about the new “aspirational” vision for stability. They know that the real test lies not in glossy PR campaigns or joint communiques, but in finding practical ways to cooperate despite their entrenched rivalry.

The problem is structural. China and the US are engaged in a high-stakes competition that affects every aspect of global politics, from trade and security to technology and influence. This dynamic has intensified since Xi’s ascension to power as he sought to reassert Chinese dominance on the world stage.

Major disagreements like US military deployments in Asia pose significant obstacles to cooperation. However, the fundamental challenge lies in the mismatch between Beijing and Washington’s competing visions for the region, driven by their respective economic and security interests. Both sides are promoting rival security architectures in the region, including competing versions of a “Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific.”

Despite these challenges, there may be areas where cooperation can occur. Non-sensitive trade and AI safety have been identified as potential starting points for constructive engagement. These issues represent crucial first steps towards building trust and demonstrating both sides’ willingness to work together.

The success of this approach depends on more than just personal chemistry between Xi and Trump. It requires a fundamental shift in mindset: recognizing that stability is not an either-or proposition, but rather one that can be achieved through constructive cooperation within an inherently competitive relationship.

For the vision for stability to succeed, both sides will need to make concessions and compromises. The US must acknowledge China’s legitimate interests in regional security and economic development, rather than viewing them as a zero-sum game. Beijing, in turn, must recognize that the US is not simply a rival or adversary, but also an indispensable partner in areas like non-proliferation and climate change.

The test of Xi’s new vision for stability will be whether it can survive intense scrutiny from domestic audiences and international observers. Can Beijing and Washington put aside their differences to build trust and cooperation on issues like trade, security, and technology? Or will they continue down a path of escalating rivalry, viewing each other as enemies rather than potential partners?

The stakes are high, but the rewards could be substantial. If Xi’s vision for stability succeeds, it would ease tensions between two great powers and help create a more stable and prosperous world order – one that benefits all nations, not just the privileged few. However, if it fails, the consequences will be far-reaching: perpetuating a cycle of mistrust and competition that threatens global security and economic stability.

Only time will tell whether Xi’s aspirational vision for stability can survive the China-US rivalry.